Steel price forecast for tomorrow

Production cuts has become a hot topic in recent days, in the end is it the initiative to reduce production? Or a passive production cut? Or that sentence, the current contradiction, still need to observe the impact of the policy on the fundamentals, especially the improvement of the steel industry, then how will the market go tomorrow?

First, there are the following factors affecting the steel market

1, Tangshan environmental protection in July or continue to upgrade

Tangshan environmental control tightened, according to the Tangshan emission reduction deployment meeting requirements, some steel blast furnace implementation of temporary furnace. It is understood that at present, Tangshan has four steel enterprises have a blast furnace furnace furnace plan, four new blast furnace furnaces, is expected to affect the daily output of hot metal of 14,000 tons.

2, in late June, the national crude steel daily output continued to increase

It is estimated that crude steel production will continue to rebound in late June. The national crude steel production is estimated to be 30.4835 million tons, with an average daily output of 3.04883 million tons, up 2.24% from mid-June and 6.71% from the same period last year.

3, June Caixin China manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5, two consecutive months of expansion

Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers’ Index (PMI) recorded 50.5 in June, slightly down 0.4 percentage points from May, two consecutive months in the expansion range, but the expansion rate slowed down, indicating that manufacturing production and business activities slowed down, and market confidence continued to fall.

Second, the spot market

Today rebar: stable in the fall

Off-season steel normal warehouse, short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, there is room for a repair rebound in prices. In addition, Tangshan environmental protection limited production, short-term rebar is expected to strengthen again, but the supply of raw materials is loose, the range is not large, it is expected that the steel rebar shock will be strong tomorrow.

Hot Volume Today: Weak running

At present, the steel mill is in a small profit state, the production willingness is still acceptable, this week some steel mills ushered in maintenance work, the supply side has some support, but the current traditional off-season, the downstream terminal acceptance of high-price resources is limited, is expected to be tomorrow’s hot coil narrow range is strong.

Today’s mid-board: concussion down

Spot performance is relatively stronger than raw materials, macro policy expectations and peaceful control of crude steel is expected to be repeatedly hyped, the trend of materials and raw materials is slightly differentiated, it is expected that the price of the board will fluctuate tomorrow, and attention will be paid to whether the flat control policy can be formally introduced.

Today’s strip: narrow down

In the macro favorable stimulation, the market mentality strengthened, in July, some steel mills environmental maintenance, supply fell slightly, low inventory of raw materials, the price rise to form support, is expected to be stable tomorrow.

Today’s profile: The main stability of the tune

After the project started, the problem of shortage of funds still exists, and after the initial period of concentrated taking of goods, the short-term demand for continued taking of goods has weakened. Considering the market macro policy stimulus news, short-term speculative demand appears, and it is expected that the profile will become stronger tomorrow.

Tubing today: Individual declines

The cost side of the support pipe factory is willing to support the price, the price of individual pipe factories is increased, the order situation is general, and the downstream merchants are more stable and actively shipping, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that the pipe will be stable and fall in operation tomorrow.

Third, the raw material market

Billet today: Stable operation

Downstream steel enterprises overall operating rate is low, production line more production maintenance, limited buying billet, this black shock adjustment, traders mentality is not good, in the contradiction between supply and demand has not actually eased before, more to maintain the principle of the market, is expected tomorrow billet slightly up.

Iron ore today: mainly steady down

At present, the iron ore inventory of steel mills is at a medium low level, and has been maintaining a low inventory strategy, iron ore prices are temporarily supported, but by the maintenance of environmental protection blast furnaces, hot metal may fall, and it is expected that the iron ore will stabilize in the middle of the decline tomorrow.

Coke today: Stable operation

Steel mill profits are low, and coke is in a low inventory state, the increase of coke is more resistant, at this stage by environmental protection and other factors, coke production is limited, the supply side is slightly tight, is expected to be stable in the upward trend of coke tomorrow.

Scrap today: Narrow adjustment

Under the influence of high temperature and rainy weather, the construction of some sites began to slow down, and the output resources of scrap steel were reduced, but the current cost performance of scrap steel was not much better than that of molten iron, and the price support for scrap steel was limited, and scrap steel shock adjustment was expected tomorrow.

Pig iron of the day: The main steady tone

Black shock operation, business wait-and-see mentality gradually, at present, the pig iron factory inventory is at a low level, there is some support for pig iron prices, but the demand has not been released, pig iron prices rise and fall dilemma, is expected to adjust the pig iron shock operation tomorrow.

Fourth, Comprehensive view

Steel production profit is limited, the price is relatively strong, the market bottom support exists. Today’s network is about to introduce a flat control policy, rather than environmental protection limited production, whether the news is true or false, the overall benefit of steel. However, considering that steel is troubled by the “off-season”, the transaction is not satisfactory, and the price rise is limited, it is expected that the steel price will be stable and run in the medium rise tomorrow, with a range of 10-30 yuan.