Review of the National Seamless Steel Pipe Market in 2024 and Outlook for the Fourth Quarter

Against the backdrop of high interest rates in developed countries in Europe and North America in 2024, global economic growth has been suppressed. Coupled with escalating geopolitical conflicts, competition among major powers, energy games, and extreme weather conditions, most emerging economies have faced significant impacts, resulting in continued high uncertainty in the global economy. Domestically, China has experienced weakness in the real estate sector, debt risks, and shocks from internal and external uncertainties, leading to a relatively slow overall recovery process and inadequate endogenous growth momentum, which has dampened overall steel demand.

Reviewing the performance of the steel market in 2024, prices maintained a high-then-low trend in the first quarter, with a stable-to-strong trend before the Spring Festival and a rapid decline in prices after the holiday. After a slight rebound in April-May, prices continued to decline, and by mid-September, seamless steel pipe prices fell below their lowest levels in nearly three years, before rebounding rapidly towards the end of September. As of early October 2024, the seamless steel pipe market exhibited a decline in average prices, intensifying competition within the industry, dampened industry confidence, significantly reduced pipe mill profits, marked contraction in pipe mill production, and poor corporate performance.

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the issue of overcapacity in the steel industry still needs to be gradually resolved through mergers and acquisitions, elimination of backward capacity, and increased industry concentration. Additionally, steel enterprises need to accelerate technological innovation and product upgrading, enhance product quality and added value, to cope with market competition. Therefore, in the medium to long term, steel prices will continue to experience a period of “labor pains.”