All up! Over 90% steel mill price adjustment, the highest raised by 70 Yuan

From January to November, the launch and transaction area of residential land in 300 cities across the country fell by 21.5% and 28.0% respectively. As of the end of November, in addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, most cities have abolished the maximum price of land, but only a small number of high-quality land parcels in core cities have been auctioned at a high premium, and the overall heat is still low.

The help group was settled to delay the resumption of coal mine production in Shanxi, and the safety supervision at the pit entrance maintained a high-pressure situation. At the end of the year, the supply of raw coal is expected to remain tight and the winter storage is expected to start to cash the increase in demand, and the shipments of coke enterprises are smooth, but the meager profits restrict the production of coke enterprises, the supply side is expected to weaken, and the coke price center is expected to gradually rise.

Part 1 Market news and analysis

01 housing enterprise bond financing rebounded sharply

According to the monitoring of the Middle Finger Research Institute, the total monthly bond financing of housing enterprises in November this year reached 41.28 billion yuan, an increase of 49.4% from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the total bond financing of housing enterprises was 628.79 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year. After three consecutive months of decline in the bond financing scale of housing enterprises, there was a significant rebound in November.

Analyst’s view: The end of the year is approaching, due to the need to pay project payments and maturing debts, developers have a large demand for funds, and the scale of bond financing has increased from the previous quarter. Recently, the financing side of housing enterprises frequently ushered in breakthrough policies, with the recovery of the market bottom, the sales of housing enterprises continue to improve, the company’s own hematopoietic ability has been enhanced, and the liquidity pressure is expected to gradually reduce.

02 The United States “small non-agricultural” continued to explode

U.S. ADP employment rose 103,000 in November versus market expectations of 130,000, and October’s ADP was revised down to 106,000, down from the previously reported 113,000. The data missed expectations for the fourth month in a row, adding to evidence that the labor market is cooling.

In September, U.S. companies added the lowest number of jobs since early 2021, adding a slowdown in the pace of pay growth that points to weaker demand for labor. With inflation cooling and the labor market weakening, the market is convinced that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is over and that the Fed will cut rates faster, driving commodity prices upward in general.

03  In the first November, steel exports increased by 35.6% year-on-year

In November, China exported 800.5 million tons of steel, an increase of 66,000 tons, or 0.8%. From January to November, the cumulative export of steel was 82.658 million tons, an increase of 35.6%. In November, China imported 102.743 million tons of iron ore and concentrate, an increase of 3.358 million tons, or 3.4%. From January to November, the cumulative import of iron ore and concentrate 1078.418 million tons, an increase of 6.2%.

Analyst opinion: Since November, the recovery of steel mill profits and the appreciation of the yuan are conducive to iron ore procurement, and the domestic hot metal production is still at a high level, indicating that the demand for iron ore is still strong. At present, the upward trend of the black system disk has not stopped, the real estate policy has helped housing enterprises repair the capital surface, the macro market continues to improve, and the future market is still strong.

PART 2 Market overview

Steel price adjustment: strong operation

On December 7, according to the data of China Steel Network Information Research Institute (Wechat public number: China Steel Network), a total of 25 steel mills have adjusted their prices today, of which:

Increased 23, accounting for 92%, the price range of 20-70 yuan/ton;

Equal to 2, accounting for 8%.

PART 3 Futures · billet dynamics

On December 7, the black system rose strongly, the thread closed at 4011 yuan up 97, the hot coil closed at 4114 yuan up 127, the coke closed at 2639 yuan up 121, and the iron ore closed at 952 yuan up 36. (2405 contract)

On December 7, Tangshan Qian ‘an part of the universal billet resources rose 50 to 3670 including tax factory

On December 7, stable and strong (China Steel Network database)

PART 4 Steel price forecast

Steel prices rose significantly after the narrow correction, the recent weather turned cold, steel is facing the pressure of accumulation, the latest steel data show that the fundamentals of thread and hot rolled varieties are strong, and the rest of the varieties have weakened. The five major materials maintain normal dewarehousing, the table needs to rebound, and the overall data is favorable. On the whole, the market is relatively optimistic about the future market, the superposition of raw materials continues to strengthen, and the upward rhythm of steel prices remains unchanged. Steel prices are expected to hold steady today.