Analysis of China’s Seamless Steel Pipe Export Situation and Consumption in 2025

Overview: Benefiting from the advantages of China’s seamless steel pipe industry chain and the increasing international demand for seamless steel pipes, China’s seamless steel pipe exports have been increasing year by year in recent years, consistently maintaining a level of over 5 million tons. In 2024, China’s seamless steel pipe exports reached a new high of 5.7211 million tons, accounting for nearly 20% of the total seamless steel pipe production. Seamless steel pipe exports occupy a significant portion of China’s international seamless steel pipe demand structure. In 2025, given the complex and ever-changing international situation, what challenges will China’s seamless steel pipe export situation face? How will the total export volume perform?

I. Review of China’s Seamless Steel Pipe Exports in 2024

(1) Review of Total Export Volume and Export Prices

Since 2020, China’s seamless steel pipe exports have been increasing year by year. In 2024, the export volume of seamless steel pipes reached 5.7211 million tons, setting a new record, an increase of nearly 2.5 million tons from the low point in 2020 and a year-on-year increase of about 1% compared to 2023. The gradual improvement in China’s seamless steel pipe export situation is mainly due to the “high quality and low price” of domestic seamless steel pipes and the increasing international demand for seamless steel pipes.

In 2024, the average export price and export volume showed a trend of “falling prices and rising volumes.” The average export price in 2024 was 1,269.82 per ton, a decrease of 182.51 compared to the average export price of $1,452.33 per ton in 2023. The average export price and export volume exhibit a certain negative correlation trend, and China’s seamless steel pipe export prices have a significant advantage in the international market.

(2) Structural Analysis of Exports

China’s seamless steel pipe export regions are relatively concentrated, mainly in countries along the “Belt and Road Initiative.” In 2024, the total export volume to the top 10 countries reached 3.1962 million tons, accounting for 55.87% of the total exports. Among them, the United Arab Emirates had the highest exports, reaching 524,900 tons, accounting for 9.18%; followed by Indonesia, with 412,200 tons, accounting for 7.21%.

China’s seamless steel pipe export varieties are relatively concentrated, mainly oil and gas-related varieties, with a significant concentration in seamless pipes for oil and gas pipelines and seamless pipes for oil and gas drilling. In 2024, the exports of seamless pipes for oil and gas drilling and seamless pipes for geological drilling sleeves decreased significantly compared to 2023. Seamless pipes for oil and gas pipelines, boiler pipes, and other seamless pipes showed a certain increase compared to 2023.

II. Analysis of Factors Influencing China’s Seamless Steel Pipe Exports in 2025

(1) Impact of Industry Policies

Belt and Road Initiative: In March 2025, the “Belt and Road Initiative” and BRICS Technological Innovation and International Cooperation Forum was held in Beijing, which will accelerate cross-border cooperation in digital technology, green energy, and other fields. Although most of the current projects involve green energy, the demand for seamless steel pipes in “Belt and Road” countries has remained at a relatively high level. In 2025, China’s seamless steel pipe exports to “Belt and Road” countries may remain high.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): According to the EU CBAM rules, China’s seamless steel pipe exports need to make up the difference in carbon prices between China and the EU. Assuming an EU carbon price of €83.6 per ton and a carbon emission intensity of about 1.7-1.8 tons of CO₂ per ton of steel (mainly blast furnace process) for China’s seamless steel pipe production, the carbon border adjustment tax payable per ton of product could reach €42.8 (2026 baseline) and may increase to €179.8 per ton by 2034. The carbon border adjustment tax may lead to an increase in export costs by 4%-6% in the short term and potentially over 10% in the long term. However, currently, the volume of seamless steel pipes exported from China to Europe is relatively low (about 365,800 tons in 2024), so the short-term impact of the carbon border adjustment tax on China’s total seamless steel pipe exports is limited.

(2) Evolution of Global Supply and Demand Patterns

Although recent U.S. tariffs have caused turmoil in the international trade situation, the direct impact on China’s seamless steel pipe exports to the U.S. is not significant due to the relatively low export volume (about 100,000 tons in 2024). According to data from the International Steel Association and Mysteel, taking 2023 as an example, the total global production of seamless steel pipes was about 53.399 million tons, of which China’s production was about 31.5 million tons, accounting for nearly 60% of global seamless steel pipe production. China is not only a major consumer of seamless steel pipes but also a major exporter of seamless steel pipes internationally, and there have been no significant overseas seamless steel pipe capacity projects in recent years. Therefore, from the perspective of production distribution, the impact of China’s seamless steel pipe exports depends more on changes in international demand for seamless steel pipes and its own cost advantages.

(3) RMB Exchange Rate and China’s Seamless Steel Pipe Exports

Recently, the high consolidation of the U.S. dollar and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s policies still put pressure on the RMB. However, with sufficient domestic policy tools, the possibility of a significant unilateral depreciation of the exchange rate is low. The exchange rate at the beginning of the year was around 7.2. From the trends of the RMB exchange rate and seamless steel pipe exports, it can be seen that there is a high negative correlation between the two. In 2025, the RMB exchange rate may remain at a relatively high level, which will have a certain positive stimulating effect on China’s seamless steel pipe exports.

(4) Crude Oil Prices and Extraction Situation

Since 2020, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and excessive money supply have caused energy prices to rise rapidly. In the first half of 2022, crude oil prices increased by more than 100%. In 2023, energy prices remained at a relatively high level. However, entering 2024, crude oil prices gradually declined, and in 2025, many institutions still predict that the loose supply and demand of crude oil will suppress the central price level. However, crude oil prices and seamless steel pipes maintain a certain positive correlation, so it can be seen that crude oil prices in 2025 may have a certain negative feedback on seamless steel pipe exports.

Oil Extraction: In 2024, the total global investment in oil and gas exploration and development was 553.8 billion,a year−on−year decrease of 2.559 and $70, which is the industry average, indicating a mediocre economic outlook.

III. Assessment of China’s Seamless Steel Pipe Exports in 2025

In summary, there are many factors influencing China’s seamless steel pipe exports in 2025, but the core factors remain international demand performance and China’s export advantages for seamless steel pipes. In terms of international demand, the demand for seamless steel pipes in 2025 may remain the same as or slightly decrease compared to 2024. In 2025, domestic seamless steel pipe prices may show a trend of “low in the first half and high in the second half,” and the average price of seamless pipes may decrease slightly year-on-year compared to 2024. China’s export advantages for seamless steel pipes are still relatively obvious. However, due to the indirect impact of U.S. tariff policies, China’s seamless steel pipe exports may be affected to some extent. It is comprehensively estimated that China’s seamless steel pipe exports in 2025 will remain at a level of 5.2-5.4 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to 2024.