Analysis of Seamless Steel Pipe Price Trends in March

I. Fundamentals of Supply and Demand

Demand Side:The overall market demand has recovered slowly. The commencement of downstream projects (such as infrastructure and machinery manufacturing) has fallen behind expectations. Terminal purchases are mainly based on rigid demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Although demand rebounded compared to the previous month after the Lantern Festival, it was still weak year-on-year. Actual transactions focused on low-priced resources, and no sustained driving force was formed. In the southern regions, affected by rainy weather, demand was temporarily hindered, resulting in a dull market trading atmosphere.

Supply Side: In March, seamless pipe production is expected to increase. For example, Shandong Guangfu Group has commenced production on a new 140 production line, and supply pressure will marginally rise. However, some steel mills in Shandong have reduced their external sales due to increased internal use of raw materials (such as Luli), leading to a slight decrease in inventory in some local markets and supporting price resilience.

II. Cost and Profit Support

Raw Material Prices: Tube billet prices showed regional differentiation. Prices in Jiangsu remained stable (Huaigang at 3,560 yuan/ton), while prices in Shandong rose slightly (Luli at 3,300 yuan/ton), but follow-up transactions were insufficient. High raw material costs provided strong support for seamless pipe ex-factory prices, but acceptance among terminals was limited, restricting profit recovery space.

Steel Mill Strategies: Some tube mills in Shandong (such as Panjin and Jinzhengyang) maintained stable ex-factory prices, showing a clear willingness to maintain prices. Jiangsu tube billet steel mills, facing less inventory pressure, offered prices that were stable but slightly stronger.

III. Market Sentiment and Policy Impacts

Market Mentality: Businesses were generally cautious, with inventory slightly accumulating but facing severe price inversions. There was a low willingness to initiate price reductions, and many chose to operate according to market conditions. During major conferences, macro policy expectations (such as infrastructure stimulus) provided potential support to the market, but the actual implementation effects still needed to be observed.

External Factors: International situations (such as U.S. tariffs) and domestic monetary policy adjustments (interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank) indirectly affected market confidence but have not yet directly impacted seamless pipe prices.

IV. Price Trend Forecast

Overall, seamless steel pipe prices in March showed a narrow range of volatility:

Upward Pressure: The slower-than-expected release of demand combined with increased supply limited the upside for prices.

Downward Support: High raw material costs and the willingness of businesses to maintain prices prevented significant price declines.

Regional Differences: The Shandong market may experience slight adjustments due to fluctuations in tube billet prices, while Jiangsu and the northwest regions will remain stable.

Expected Subsequent Trends: If macro policies (such as accelerated infrastructure projects) take effect in the middle to late March, prices may temporarily strengthen. However, it will still be difficult to break through the vibration range overall. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in steel mill inventory and the pace of terminal demand recovery.