Rebar Futures Plunge Over 2%, Steel Billet Drops 50 Yuan, Steel Prices Decline Weakly

Summary of Spot and Futures Steel Prices

On April 7, China’s domestic steel market saw a weak downward trend. The ex-factory price (tax-inclusive) of standard steel billets in Qian’an, Tangshan, cumulatively fell by 50 yuan to 2,970 yuan/ton. Domestic commodity futures recorded widespread declines on the 7th, with traders reporting sluggish trading activity in the spot steel market and an emergence of low-priced resources.

On April 7, the main rebar futures contract closed at 3,146 yuan, down 2.75%. Both the DIF and DEA indicators trended downward, while the RSI three-line indicator hovered between 35-42, near the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands.

On April 7, three domestic steel mills reduced ex-factory prices for construction steel by 30-70 yuan/ton.

Daily Price Trends for Major Steel Products

Rebar: On April 7, the average price of 20mm Grade III seismic-resistant rebar in 31 major cities nationwide was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Following the implementation of tariff policies, short-term market bearish sentiment has been partially released. However, the policy’s impact scope exceeded expectations, and market uncertainty risks persist. Prices for domestic construction steel are expected to remain weak on the 8th.

Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC): On April 7, the average price of 4.75mm HRC in 24 major cities was 3,365 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day. Recent production line maintenance has reduced output, but direct exports of HRC have weakened recently. Terminal demand growth remains limited, and amid the Qingming holiday, the Sino-U.S. tariff spat intensified market aversion. HRC prices are projected to fluctuate weakly on the 8th.

Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC): On April 7, the average price of 1.0mm CRC in 24 major cities was 4,091 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the prior day. Trading volumes contracted significantly on the 7th. Despite active promotion by traders, demand remained sluggish, falling short of expectations. The persistent price gap between CRC and HRC—over 700 yuan/ton—has pressured traders, who remain cautious and wait-and-see. Overall, CRC spot prices nationwide are expected to trend weakly on the 8th.

Steel Market Price Forecast

Trump’s reckless tariff policies have triggered global market turmoil. JPMorgan Chase raised the probability of a global economic recession from 40% to 60%, while international crude oil and London non-ferrous metal futures plunged sharply. On Monday’s close, domestic commodity futures—including ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and crude oil—also saw steep declines, except for agricultural products. Short-term steel prices followed the downward trend of futures markets.