Steel price forecast for tomorrow

The overall pattern of the recent steel market is that raw materials are strong, materials are weak, and raw materials are rising to drive the disk to rise passively. But from the fundamental point of view, the steel supply and demand structure has not changed, then this will also lead to the steel price rise space or not so smooth, how to go tomorrow？

First, there are the following factors affecting the steel market

 1. Commercial concrete production is expected to fall to 2.4 billion cubic meters in 2030

With the gradual decline in construction demand, the industry has gradually entered a downward cycle, and the production of commercial concrete is expected to decline to 2.4 billion cubic meters in 2030 and 1.6 billion cubic meters in 2060.

2, in the short and medium term, the bottom of the steel industry may have arrived

Since the beginning of this year, the steel market has been weak, domestic steel futures have fallen by more than 6%, and industry profits have contracted. The current A-share steel sector valuation is at the bottom, and the market believes that the bottom of the steel industry may have arrived.

3, the association: in July 2023, the pickup market sold 39,000 vehicles, down 10%

According to the data of the Union pickup market, 39,000 pickup trucks were sold in July 2023, down 10% year-on-year and 15% month-on-month, which is at a medium and high level in the past five years.

Second, the spot market

Today’s rebar: stable and strong

Stimulated by iron ore, dual coking and other futures prices, today’s spot prices passively rise, speculative demand is active, but the downstream substantial demand is still limited, is expected to be stable in the steel bar tomorrow.

Hot volume today: Strong operation

In terms of macro, many places have introduced a number of measures to further promote consumption and expand domestic demand, stimulate automobile consumption and benefit steel prices; In terms of cost, iron ore and bifocal continue to strengthen, continue to support sheet metal prices, and it is expected that the hot roll will be stable and strong operation tomorrow.

Today’s mid-board: Steady upward

Medium board supply continues to increase, factory warehouse and social warehouse accumulation at the same time, the supply pressure is still in, but the market speculative transactions slightly increased, the actual demand of the terminal slowly pick up, the short-term rebound under the cost is expected to be stable in the medium board tomorrow.

Today’s strip steel: the shock is strong

Favorable macro good news, black futures rose on the board, boosting market confidence, and prices rebounded, but the market as a whole is still at a relatively weak level, the increase or limited, is expected to edge up tomorrow.

Profile today: Narrow up

At present, the market stage replenishment still exists, the release of demand will be conducive to the support of the price, in the case of little sales pressure, the steel mill is willing to stand up, and it is expected that the main stable rise of the profile will run tomorrow.

Pipe today: steady growth

At present, the price support of raw materials is still strong, and the spot price is mostly stable, but the demand is weak under the off-season market, and the market policy is limited.

Third, the raw material market

Billet today: Stable operation

Today, the futures continue to rise, market sentiment has been boosted to a certain extent, in the case of the billet itself supply and demand data is relatively general, the recent steel companies to strengthen the willingness to support the price, is expected to be a slight upward trend tomorrow.

Iron ore today: mainly steady growth

Blast furnace production increase, hot metal production remains high, strong fundamentals continue to support iron ore spot prices, the current pessimistic expectations continue to repair, macro expectations have also warmed up, is expected to run iron ore high shock tomorrow.

Coke today: stable and strong

With the recent repair of steel mill profits, the operating rate of coke enterprises has improved compared with the previous period, and the supply has rebounded, but the steel demand continues to be poor, the profit situation is not obvious, and the coke procurement has more control phenomenon, and it is expected that the coke will run slightly stronger tomorrow.

Scrap today: Steady upward

At present, the thread is in a passive rise, the scrap price has been boosted in the short term, the current price is mainly to follow the material expectations and steel mill inventory changes, but the profits of steel companies have not significantly improved, the increase is limited, it is expected that the scrap will be stable and upward tomorrow.

Pig iron of the day: The main steady tone

At present, the cost of pig iron raw materials has weakened, businesses continue to drop shipments, and the focus of transactions has moved down again, in addition, for steel mills, fewer new orders, slow shipments, it is expected that the main pig iron will be stable and fall tomorrow.

Iv. Comprehensive view

Affected by the improvement of macro expectations, the steel market sentiment has been boosted, coupled with the continued strength of cost-end iron ore and bifocal, and the current price has been raised to varying degrees; However, the market is relatively doubtful about whether the just need to substantially pick up, if the downstream terminal is low in acceptance of high-price resources, the steel price rise space or limited, it is expected that the steel price will be stable and run in the medium rise tomorrow, with a range of 10-30 RMB.