Steel price forecast for tomorrow

Look, the market is grinding again, look at this situation seems to have reached a critical period. At present, the news level has good and bad, the most afraid is to have pessimistic news entry, but from the perspective of steel mills, as long as the inventory does not continue to accumulate, then the problem will not be too big. How will the market go tomorrow？

First, there are the following factors affecting the steel market

1. In September 2023, industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.5%

The value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.5%, indicating that China’s industrial production has continued to recover steadily. In this case, the demand for steel will increase, and the trend of steel prices will increase, which is good for steel prices. (National Bureau of Statistics)

2. The number of provinces and cities to issue special refinancing bonds has increased to 19

The increase in refinancing bonds can ease the financial pressure on the steel industry, which is conducive to expanding steel production capacity and increasing market supply, thus balancing supply and demand and stabilizing steel prices. It is more conducive to providing more financial support for iron and steel enterprises, promoting the normal operation of iron and steel enterprises and economic development, and the medium and long term steel price is good.

3.The transformation of urban villages in super-large cities press the “acceleration button”

The transformation of urban villages requires the use of a large number of building materials, such as steel bars, cement, etc., which will drive the growth of related consumption, thus providing a certain boost to steel prices. In addition, this will also stimulate the activity of the black plate, and then have a certain supporting effect on the steel price.

Second, the spot market

Today rebar: stable in the fall

Steel production has continued to decline, and demand has picked up from the previous quarter, with a larger margin, which is good for rebar. In the short term, there is little downward space for steel prices, and the ability to resist falling is strong.

Today’s hot roll: stable to weak

Steel mill losses increased, production enthusiasm weakened, hot coil production fell slightly, in addition to the cost of iron ore again strong, just need to replenish inventory and market speculation is OK, the fundamentals to maintain a weak balance, is expected to be hot coil up slightly tomorrow.

Today’s medium board: The oscillation is weak

Medium and thick plate inventory continues to be high in recent years, the release of terminal demand is insufficient, the current plate price is mainly to follow the cost of fluctuations, their own temporary no obvious upward driving force, is expected to rise and fall tomorrow.

Today’s strip steel: the shock is weak

Steel mill profits continue to hang upside down, the downstream inventory has accumulated, the current market is still dominated by speculative demand, the actual demand is limited, the fundamental contradiction is relatively prominent, is expected to narrow strip adjustment operation tomorrow.

Today’s profile: stable medium down

Short-term profile to warehouse pressure is still in, supply strong need weak, the overall transaction is general. In addition, subject to the downstream shortage of funds and weather effects, the downstream willingness to take goods is not good, but considering that there is still support at the bottom, it is expected that the profile will be stable and fall tomorrow.

Pipe today: Steady medium down

Some areas in the north have entered the heating season, and demand has entered the off-season, and terminal demand has begun to slow down. At present, the market is mainly based on stable prices, the overall trading is light, merchants are still doubtful about the future market, and it is expected that the pipe will be stable in the fall tomorrow.

Third, the raw material market

Billet today: Stable operation

At present, the market is expected to reduce production, there is support for the bottom of the billet, in addition, Tangshan steel rolling enterprises to lift environmental restrictions on production, the demand for billets or will increase, but the sustainability remains to be seen, is expected to narrow adjustment operation tomorrow.

Iron ore today: mainly steady growth

Although the production of molten iron has declined, but the current rate of decline is not as expected, the fundamentals are still supported, but the iron ore is still facing a lot of uncertainties, the negative feedback that the market is worried about has not been completely lifted, and it is expected that the mine price will be under pressure tomorrow.

Coke today: Stable to weak

Recently, individual areas of coke decreased slightly, steel losses have eased, but some steel mills are still controlling the rhythm of coke arrival, affecting the slowdown of coke shipments, but considering the current no inventory pressure, coke is expected to rise slightly tomorrow.

Scrap today: Narrow adjustment

At present, the willingness of steel companies to waste is general, and traders’ fear of falling has not improved. However, at present, the economic benefits of scrap steel are stronger than that of molten iron, and the advantages of scrap steel are gradually expanding, which is good for scrap steel, and the probability of a big drop is not large, and scrap steel is expected to be individually raised tomorrow.

Today’s pig iron: weak stable operation

Although the plate is frequently disturbed today, the spot of raw materials is at a high level, it is difficult to decline in the short term, and the pig iron price is still supported, but considering that the demand is difficult to release, it is expected that the pig iron will rise and fall in the short term.

Iv. Comprehensive view

From the current spot market, the steel supply and demand relationship is in a weak balance, although the production has declined this week, but the demand is not extremely strong, resulting in a certain wait-and-see mood in the market, so the sharp rise in steel prices may not be particularly significant. It is expected that the steel price will rise steadily tomorrow, with a range of 10-20 yuan.