Steel Price Forecast for Tomorrow

The market opened with weakness and ended in decline. Rumors suggest that there will be a third round of price cuts for coke in the near future. Anti-dumping measures and tariff impacts have led to price falls. In addition to decreasing domestic demand, exports are also weakening. How will the market perform tomorrow?

I. Factors Influencing the Steel Market

1.704 Million Affordable Housing Units Planned for Construction Nationwide This Year

This year, the plan is to construct and raise funds for 1.704 million affordable housing units. As of the end of June, 1.128 million units (rooms) have been constructed and funded nationwide, accounting for 66.2% of the annual plan, with an investment of 118.3 billion yuan completed. (Hexun)

Crude Steel Daily Production of 1.9735 Million Tonnes by Key Steel Enterprises in Late July

In late July, the daily crude steel production of key steel enterprises was 1.9735 million tonnes, a decrease of 8.14% from the previous month and 7.59% from the same period last year on a like-for-like basis. At the end of late July, steel inventory was 16.0505 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.54% from the previous ten-day period and an increase of 9.23% from the same period last month. (Sina Finance)

Domestic Sales of Excavators Increased by 21.9% in July

In July, 13,690 excavators of various types were sold, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year. Among them, 6,234 were sold domestically, up 21.9% year-on-year; 7,456 were exported, down 0.51% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, a total of 116,903 excavators were sold, a decrease of 3.72% year-on-year. Among them, 59,461 were sold domestically, up 6.23% year-on-year; 57,262 were exported, down 12.3% year-on-year. (Sina Finance)

II. Spot Market

Rebar Today: Slight Decline

Market transactions were sluggish. Currently, there is no obvious upward driver from both domestic and international macros. Coupled with the continuous decline in steel exports and domestic demand, weak demand is dominating steel prices. Spot prices are under pressure and declining. It is expected that rebar prices will remain stable or decline slightly tomorrow.

Hot-Rolled Coil Today: Slight Decline

Affected by seasonal declines and anti-dumping measures on export orders, steel exports in July fell significantly compared to June, showing a bearish trend. At the same time, domestic policy expectations weakened, steel supply increased, and demand remained weak. Overall market transactions weakened. It is expected that hot-rolled coil prices will decline slightly tomorrow.

Medium Plate Today: Slight Decline

Market transactions were sluggish, and downstream market participants have little hope for the future. Before macro policy stimulation and improved consumer demand, traders focused on withdrawing funds to hedge risks and wait for opportunities. It is expected that medium plate prices will weaken tomorrow.

Steel Strip Today: Stable Operation

Merchants’ willingness to offload goods remains unchanged, but demand-side participants are generally waiting and watching. Market transactions were average, and there was no sign of easing in the supply-demand contradiction. In addition, there is still an expectation of cost reductions, further weakening price support. It is expected that steel strip prices will decline slightly tomorrow.

Section Steel Today: Slight Decline

Downstream demand conditions have not improved, and market transactions are mostly small and scattered. Coupled with poor inventory reduction and a decrease in steel billet prices, there is an expectation of further price declines. It is expected that section steel prices will decline slightly tomorrow.

Pipe Today: Stable Operation

Spot prices for upstream and downstream products have been reduced consecutively, and market sentiment remains confident. Merchants have lowered prices to stimulate resource circulation and reduce losses, but the downward trend has not stopped. It is expected that pipe prices will decline slightly tomorrow.

III. Raw Material Market

Steel Billet Today: Slight Decline

The market fell again, hitting market sentiment. Trading conditions were average, and demand performance was poor. The only favorable signal is that blast furnace production reductions are gradually increasing. However, overall, it will still depend on market fluctuations. It is expected that steel billet prices will decline slightly tomorrow.

Iron Ore Today: Weak Operation

Molten iron production has fallen from high levels. Steel plants’ profit levels during the off-season for terminal steel demand have declined significantly, and there is room for further declines in molten iron production in the future. Currently, steel plants’ enthusiasm for raw material procurement remains insufficient. It is expected that iron ore prices will decline slightly tomorrow.

Coke Today: Volatile Decline

Coke is already in a low valuation area. Recently, there has been a noticeable decline in inventory, and downstream participants have shown signs of replenishing stocks at lower prices. However, there is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts. It is expected that coke prices will decline slightly tomorrow.

Scrap Steel Today: Slight Decline

Currently, steel plant maintenance continues to increase, reducing the demand for scrap steel. Additionally, with the third round of coke price cuts imminent, steel plants still have a strong desire to reduce costs. Short-term scrap steel prices are unlikely to improve. It is expected that scrap steel prices will decline slightly tomorrow.

Pig Iron Today: Stable Operation

Steel plant profits have increased but are still in a loss state. It cannot be ruled out that there may be a third round of coke price cuts to pass on benefits. However, given the poor demand situation, there is little room for prices to rise. It is expected that pig iron prices will decline slightly tomorrow.

IV. Comprehensive Viewpoint

Although the market was relatively stable in the morning, spot prices never caught up. Market participants are cautious and even bearish. The impact of supply-demand contradictions and the delayed appearance of policies have made it difficult to find hope. The probability of a price increase is gradually decreasing. It is expected that steel prices will decline slightly tomorrow, with a range of 10-20 yuan.